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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
High-Resolution Peak Demand Estimation Using Generalized ...
Jonathan Berrisch, Michał Narajewski, Florian Ziel · 2022-03-07 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

This paper covers predicting high-resolution electricity peak demand features given lower-resolution data. This is a relevant setup as it answers whether limited higher-resolution monitoring helps to estimate future high-resolution peak loads when the high-resolution data is no longer available. That question is particularly interesting for network operators considering replacing high-resolution monitoring predictive models due to economic considerations. We propose models to predict half-hourly minima and maxima of high-resolution (every minute) electricity load data while model inputs are of a lower resolution (30 minutes). We combine predictions of generalized additive models (GAM) and deep artificial neural networks (DNN), which are popular in load forecasting. We extensively analyze the prediction models, including the input parameters' importance, focusing on load, weather, and seasonal effects. The proposed method won a data competition organized by Western Power Distribution, a British distribution network operator. In addition, we provide a rigorous evaluation study that goes beyond the competition frame to analyze the models' robustness. The results show that the proposed methods are superior to the competition benchmark concerning the out-of-sample root mean squared error (RMSE). This holds regarding the competition month and the supplementary evaluation study, which covers an additional eleven months. Overall, our proposed model combination reduces the out-of-sample RMSE by 57.4\% compared to the benchmark.