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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
CausalRivers -- Scaling up benchmarking of causal discove...
Gideon Stein, Maha Shadaydeh, Jan Blunk, Niklas Penzel, Joachim · 2025-03-22 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Causal discovery, or identifying causal relationships from observational data, is a notoriously challenging task, with numerous methods proposed to tackle it. Despite this, in-the-wild evaluation of these methods is still lacking, as works frequently rely on synthetic data evaluation and sparse real-world examples under critical theoretical assumptions. Real-world causal structures, however, are often complex, making it hard to decide on a proper causal discovery strategy. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalRivers, the largest in-the-wild causal discovery benchmarking kit for time-series data to date. CausalRivers features an extensive dataset on river discharge that covers the eastern German territory (666 measurement stations) and the state of Bavaria (494 measurement stations). It spans the years 2019 to 2023 with a 15-minute temporal resolution. Further, we provide additional data from a flood around the Elbe River, as an event with a pronounced distributional shift. Leveraging multiple sources of information and time-series meta-data, we constructed two distinct causal ground truth graphs (Bavaria and eastern Germany). These graphs can be sampled to generate thousands of subgraphs to benchmark causal discovery across diverse and challenging settings. To demonstrate the utility of CausalRivers, we evaluate several causal discovery approaches through a set of experiments to identify areas for improvement. CausalRivers has the potential to facilitate robust evaluations and comparisons of causal discovery methods. Besides this primary purpose, we also expect that this dataset will be relevant for connected areas of research, such as time-series forecasting and anomaly detection. Based on this, we hope to push benchmark-driven method development that fosters advanced techniques for causal discovery, as is the case for many other areas of machine learning.