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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Applications of Signature Methods to Market Anomaly Detec...
Erdinc Akyildirim, Matteo Gambara, Josef Teichmann, Syang Zhou · 2022-01-07 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Anomaly detection is the process of identifying abnormal instances or events in data sets which deviate from the norm significantly. In this study, we propose a signatures based machine learning algorithm to detect rare or unexpected items in a given data set of time series type. We present applications of signature or randomized signature as feature extractors for anomaly detection algorithms; additionally we provide an easy, representation theoretic justification for the construction of randomized signatures. Our first application is based on synthetic data and aims at distinguishing between real and fake trajectories of stock prices, which are indistinguishable by visual inspection. We also show a real life application by using transaction data from the cryptocurrency market. In this case, we are able to identify pump and dump attempts organized on social networks with F1 scores up to 88% by means of our unsupervised learning algorithm, thus achieving results that are close to the state-of-the-art in the field based on supervised learning.