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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Integrating Local and Global Entropy for Uncertainty Quan...
Johanne Medina, Tianyi Zhou, Keivin Isufaj, Aristides Gionis, Sa · 2026-06-03 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Large language models hallucinate confidently, making uncertainty quantification (UQ) essential for reliable deployment. Existing methods rely predominantly on token-level signals, leaving the geometric structure of intermediate hidden states underused. In this paper, we take the geometric complexity of hidden-state matrices as a measure of the global uncertainty of LLMs, while treating token-level uncertainty estimation as a local metric. We show that hidden-state geometric entropy (global uncertainty) and token-level entropy (local uncertainty) are statistically near-orthogonal, capturing distinct failure regimes for reliability prediction. In particular, global geometry recovers the confident-but-wrong failure mode that local signals systematically miss. Building on this, we propose Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU), an unsupervised, single-pass score that fuses the two signals via a multiplicative gate. Across three model families and six benchmarks, GLU matches or outperforms all unsupervised baselines while requiring only a single forward pass and remaining length-normalized and architecture-agnostic.