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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Causal-Policy Forest for End-to-End Policy Learning
Masahiro Kato · 2025-12-28 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

This study proposes an end-to-end algorithm for policy learning in causal inference. We observe data consisting of covariates, treatment assignments, and outcomes, where only the outcome corresponding to the assigned treatment is observed. The goal of policy learning is to train a policy from the observed data, where a policy is a function that recommends an optimal treatment for each individual, to maximize the policy value. In this study, we first show that maximizing the policy value is equivalent to minimizing the mean squared error for the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) under $\{-1, 1\}$ restricted regression models. Based on this finding, we modify the causal forest, an end-to-end CATE estimation algorithm, for policy learning. We refer to our algorithm as the causal-policy forest. Our algorithm has three advantages. First, it is a simple modification of an existing, widely used CATE estimation method, therefore, it helps bridge the gap between policy learning and CATE estimation in practice. Second, while existing studies typically estimate nuisance parameters for policy learning as a separate task, our algorithm trains the policy in a more end-to-end manner. Third, as in standard decision trees and random forests, we train the models efficiently, avoiding computational intractability.