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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Strategic A/B testing via Maximum Probability-driven Two-...
Yu Zhang, Shanshan Zhao, Bokui Wan, Jinjuan Wang, Xiaodong Yan · 2025-06-28 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Detecting a minor average treatment effect is a major challenge in large-scale applications, where even minimal improvements can have a significant economic impact. Traditional methods, reliant on normal distribution-based or expanded statistics, often fail to identify such minor effects because of their inability to handle small discrepancies with sufficient sensitivity. This work leverages a counterfactual outcome framework and proposes a maximum probability-driven two-armed bandit (TAB) process by weighting the mean volatility statistic, which controls Type I error. The implementation of permutation methods further enhances the robustness and efficacy. The established strategic central limit theorem (SCLT) demonstrates that our approach yields a more concentrated distribution under the null hypothesis and a less concentrated one under the alternative hypothesis, greatly improving statistical power. The experimental results indicate a significant improvement in the A/B testing, highlighting the potential to reduce experimental costs while maintaining high statistical power.