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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
An Exponential Averaging Process with Strong Convergence ...
Frederik Köhne, Anton Schiela · 2025-05-16 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Averaging, or smoothing, is a fundamental approach to obtain stable, de-noised estimates from noisy observations. In certain scenarios, observations made along trajectories of random dynamical systems are of particular interest. One popular smoothing technique for such a scenario is exponential moving averaging (EMA), which assigns observations a weight that decreases exponentially in their age, thus giving younger observations a larger weight. However, EMA fails to enjoy strong stochastic convergence properties, which stems from the fact that the weight assigned to the youngest observation is constant over time, preventing the noise in the averaged quantity from decreasing to zero. In this work, we consider an adaptation to EMA, which we call $p$-EMA, where the weights assigned to the last observations decrease to zero at a subharmonic rate. We provide stochastic convergence guarantees for this kind of averaging under mild assumptions on the autocorrelations of the underlying random dynamical system. We further discuss the implications of our results for a recently introduced adaptive step size control for Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), which uses $p$-EMA for averaging noisy observations.