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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
AverageTime: Enhance Long-Term Time Series Forecasting wi...
Gaoxiang Zhao, Chunmao Huang, Li Zhou, Xiaoqiang Wang · 2024-12-30 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Multivariate long-term time series forecasting aims to predict future sequences by utilizing historical observations, with a core focus on modeling intra-sequence and cross-channel dependencies. Numerous studies have developed diverse architectures to capture these patterns, achieving significant improvements in forecasting accuracy. Among them, iTransformer, a representative method for channel information extraction, leverages the Transformer architecture to model channel-wise dependencies, thereby facilitating sequence transformation for enhanced forecasting performance. Building upon iTransformer's channel extraction concept, we propose AverageTime, a simple, efficient, and scalable forecasting model. Beyond iTransformer, AverageTime retains the original sequence information and reframes channel extraction as a stackable and extensible architecture. This allows the model to generate multiple novel sequences through various structural mechanisms, rather than being limited to transforming the original input. Moreover, the newly extracted sequences are not restricted to channel processing; other techniques such as series decomposition can also be incorporated to enhance predictive accuracy. Additionally, we introduce a channel clustering technique into AverageTime, which substantially improves training and inference efficiency with negligible performance loss. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that with only two straightforward averaging operations, applied to both the extracted sequences and the original series. AverageTime surpasses state-of-the-art models in forecasting performance while maintaining near-linear complexity. This work offers a new perspective on time series forecasting: enriching sequence information through extraction and fusion. The source code is available at https://github.com/ UniqueoneZ/AverageTime.