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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Tightening optimality gap with confidence through conform...
Miao Li, Michael Klamkin, Russell Bent, Pascal Van Hentenryck · 2025-03-06 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Decision makers routinely use constrained optimization technology to plan and operate complex systems like global supply chains or power grids. In this context, practitioners must assess how close a computed solution is to optimality in order to make operational decisions, such as whether the current solution is sufficient or whether additional computation is warranted. A common practice is to evaluate solution quality using dual bounds returned by optimization solvers. While these dual bounds come with certified guarantees, they are often too loose to be practically informative. To this end, this paper introduces a novel conformal prediction framework for tightening loose primal and dual bounds. The proposed method addresses the heteroskedasticity commonly observed in these bounds via selective inference, and further exploits their inherent certified validity to produce tighter, more informative prediction intervals. Finally, numerical experiments on large-scale industrial problems suggest that the proposed approach can provide the same coverage level more efficiently than baseline methods.