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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Selective Prediction via Training Dynamics
Stephan Rabanser, Anvith Thudi, Kimia Hamidieh, Adam Dziedzic, I · 2022-05-27 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Selective Prediction is the task of rejecting inputs a model would predict incorrectly on. This involves a trade-off between input space coverage (how many data points are accepted) and model utility (how good is the performance on accepted data points). Current methods for selective prediction typically impose constraints on either the model architecture or the optimization objective; this inhibits their usage in practice and introduces unknown interactions with pre-existing loss functions. In contrast to prior work, we show that state-of-the-art selective prediction performance can be attained solely from studying the (discretized) training dynamics of a model. We propose a general framework that, given a test input, monitors metrics capturing the instability of predictions from intermediate models (i.e., checkpoints) obtained during training w.r.t. the final model's prediction. In particular, we reject data points exhibiting too much disagreement with the final prediction at late stages in training. The proposed rejection mechanism is domain-agnostic (i.e., it works for both discrete and real-valued prediction) and can be flexibly combined with existing selective prediction approaches as it does not require any train-time modifications. Our experimental evaluation on image classification, regression, and time series problems shows that our method beats past state-of-the-art accuracy/utility trade-offs on typical selective prediction benchmarks.