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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Deep sub-ensembles meets quantile regression: uncertainty...
Ying Liu, Peng Cui, Wenbo Hu, Richang Hong · 2023-12-03 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Real-world time series data often exhibits substantial missing values, posing challenges for advanced analysis. A common approach to addressing this issue is imputation, where the primary challenge lies in determining the appropriate values to fill in. While previous deep learning methods have proven effective for time series imputation, they often produce overconfident imputations, which poses a potentially overlooked risk to the reliability of the intelligent system. Diffusion methods are proficient in estimating probability distributions but face challenges under a high missing rate and are, moreover, computationally expensive due to the nature of the generative model framework. In this paper, we propose Quantile Sub-Ensembles, a novel method that estimates uncertainty with ensembles of quantile-regression-based task networks and incorporate Quantile Sub-Ensembles into a non-generative time series imputation method. Our method not only produces accurate and reliable imputations, but also remains computationally efficient due to its non-generative framework. We conduct extensive experiments on five real-world datasets, and the results demonstrates superior performance in both deterministic and probabilistic imputation compared to baselines across most experimental settings. The code is available at https://github.com/yingliu-coder/QSE.