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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasting via Machine Learning: Ch...
Sijie He, Xinyan Li, Timothy DelSole, Pradeep Ravikumar, Arindam · 2020-06-15 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural productivity, water resource management, transportation and aviation systems, and emergency planning for extreme weather events. However, SSF is considered more challenging than either weather prediction or even seasonal prediction. In this paper, we carefully study a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches for SSF over the US mainland. While atmosphere-land-ocean couplings and the limited amount of good quality data makes it hard to apply black-box ML naively, we show that with carefully constructed feature representations, even linear regression models, e.g., Lasso, can be made to perform well. Among a broad suite of 10 ML approaches considered, gradient boosting performs the best, and deep learning (DL) methods show some promise with careful architecture choices. Overall, suitable ML methods are able to outperform the climatological baseline, i.e., predictions based on the 30-year average at a given location and time. Further, based on studying feature importance, ocean (especially indices based on climatic oscillations such as El Nino) and land (soil moisture) covariates are found to be predictive, whereas atmospheric covariates are not considered helpful.