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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Bayesian Causal Forests for Longitudinal Data: Assessing ...
Nathan McJames, Ann O'Shea, Andrew Parnell · 2024-07-17 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Modelling growth in student achievement is a significant challenge in the field of education. Understanding how interventions or experiences such as part-time work can influence this growth is also important. Traditional methods like difference-in-differences are effective for estimating causal effects from longitudinal data. Meanwhile, Bayesian non-parametric methods have recently become popular for estimating causal effects from single time point observational studies. However, there remains a scarcity of methods capable of combining the strengths of these two approaches to flexibly estimate heterogeneous causal effects from longitudinal data. Motivated by two waves of data from the High School Longitudinal Study, the NCES' most recent longitudinal study which tracks a representative sample of over 20,000 students in the US, our study introduces a longitudinal extension of Bayesian Causal Forests. This model allows for the flexible identification of both individual growth in mathematical ability and the effects of participation in part-time work. Simulation studies demonstrate the predictive performance and reliable uncertainty quantification of the proposed model. Results reveal the negative impact of part time work for most students, but hint at potential benefits for those students with an initially low sense of school belonging. Clear signs of a widening achievement gap between students with high and low academic achievement are also identified. Potential policy implications are discussed, along with promising areas for future research.