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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
AutoML Algorithms for Online Generalized Additive Model S...
Keshav Das, Julie Keisler, Margaux Brégère, Amaury Durand · 2025-03-31 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Electricity demand forecasting is key to ensuring that supply meets demand lest the grid would blackout. Reliable short-term forecasts may be obtained by combining a Generalized Additive Models (GAM) with a State-Space model (Obst et al., 2021), leading to an adaptive (or online) model. A GAM is an over-parameterized linear model defined by a formula and a state-space model involves hyperparameters. Both the formula and adaptation parameters have to be fixed before model training and have a huge impact on the model's predictive performance. We propose optimizing them using the DRAGON package of Keisler (2025), originally designed for neural architecture search. This work generalizes it for automated online generalized additive model selection by defining an efficient modeling of the search space (namely, the space of the GAM formulae and adaptation parameters). Its application to short-term French electricity demand forecasting demonstrates the relevance of the approach