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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Simulation-Based Prior Knowledge Elicitation for Parametr...
Florence Bockting, Stefan T. Radev, Paul-Christian Bürkner · 2023-08-22 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

A central characteristic of Bayesian statistics is the ability to consistently incorporate prior knowledge into various modeling processes. In this paper, we focus on translating domain expert knowledge into corresponding prior distributions over model parameters, a process known as prior elicitation. Expert knowledge can manifest itself in diverse formats, including information about raw data, summary statistics, or model parameters. A major challenge for existing elicitation methods is how to effectively utilize all of these different formats in order to formulate prior distributions that align with the expert's expectations, regardless of the model structure. To address these challenges, we develop a simulation-based elicitation method that can learn the hyperparameters of potentially any parametric prior distribution from a wide spectrum of expert knowledge using stochastic gradient descent. We validate the effectiveness and robustness of our elicitation method in four representative case studies covering linear models, generalized linear models, and hierarchical models. Our results support the claim that our method is largely independent of the underlying model structure and adaptable to various elicitation techniques, including quantile-based, moment-based, and histogram-based methods.