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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Non-Convex Portfolio Optimization via Energy-Based Models...
Javier Mancilla, Theodoros D. Bouloumis, Frederic Goguikian · 2026-01-13 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Portfolio optimization under cardinality constraints transforms the classical Markowitz mean-variance problem from a convex quadratic problem into an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. This paper introduces a novel approach using THRML (Thermodynamic HypergRaphical Model Library), a JAX-based library for building and sampling probabilistic graphical models that reformulates index tracking as probabilistic inference on an Ising Hamiltonian. Unlike traditional methods that seek a single optimal solution, THRML samples from the Boltzmann distribution of high-quality portfolios using GPU-accelerated block Gibbs sampling, providing natural regularization against overfitting. We implement three key innovations: (1) dynamic coupling strength that scales inversely with market volatility (VIX), adapting diversification pressure to market regimes; (2) rebalanced bias weights prioritizing tracking quality over momentum for index replication; and (3) sector-aware post-processing ensuring institutional-grade diversification. Backtesting on a 100-stock S and P 500 universe from 2023 to 2025 demonstrates that THRML achieves 4.31 percent annualized tracking error versus 5.66 to 6.30 percent for baselines, while simultaneously generating 128.63 percent total return against the index total return of 79.61 percent. The Diebold-Mariano test confirms statistical significance with p less than 0.0001 across all comparisons. These results position energy-based models as a promising paradigm for portfolio construction, bridging statistical mechanics and quantitative finance.