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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Online Ensemble Learning for Sector Rotation: A Gradient-...
Jiaju Miao, Pawel Polak · 2023-03-30 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We propose a gradient-free online ensemble learning algorithm that dynamically combines forecasts from a heterogeneous set of machine learning models based on their recent predictive performance, measured by out-of-sample R-squared. The ensemble is model-agnostic, requires no gradient access, and is designed for sequential forecasting under nonstationarity. It adaptively reweights 16 constituent models-three linear benchmarks (OLS, PCR, LASSO) and thirteen nonlinear learners including Random Forests, Gradient-Boosted Trees, and a hierarchy of neural networks (NN1-NN12). We apply the framework to sector rotation, using sector-level features aggregated from firm characteristics. Empirically, sector returns are more predictable and stable than individual asset returns, making them suitable for cross-sectional forecasting. The algorithm constructs sector-specific ensembles that assign adaptive weights in a rolling-window fashion, guided by forecast accuracy. Our key theoretical result bounds the online forecast regret directly in terms of realized out-of-sample R-squared, providing an interpretable guarantee that the ensemble performs nearly as well as the best model in hindsight. Empirically, the ensemble consistently outperforms individual models, equal-weighted averages, and traditional offline ensembles, delivering higher predictive accuracy, stronger risk-adjusted returns, and robustness across macroeconomic regimes, including during the COVID-19 crisis.