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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Cosmological Parameter Estimation with Sequential Linear ...
Nicolas Mediato-Diaz, Will Handley · 2025-01-08 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We develop the framework of Linear Simulation-based Inference (LSBI), an application of simulation-based inference where the likelihood is approximated by a Gaussian linear function of its parameters. We obtain analytical expressions for the posterior distributions of hyper-parameters of the linear likelihood in terms of samples drawn from a simulator, for both uniform and conjugate priors. This method is applied sequentially to several toy-models and tested on emulated datasets for the Cosmic Microwave Background temperature power spectrum. We find that convergence is achieved after four or five rounds of $\mathcal{O}(10^4)$ simulations, which is competitive with state-of-the-art neural density estimation methods. Therefore, we demonstrate that it is possible to obtain significant information gain and generate posteriors that agree with the underlying parameters while maintaining explainability and intellectual oversight.