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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Multivariate Uncertainty Quantification with Tomographic ...
Takuya Kanazawa · 2025-12-18 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Quantifying predictive uncertainty is essential for safe and trustworthy real-world AI deployment. Yet, fully nonparametric estimation of conditional distributions remains challenging for multivariate targets. We propose Tomographic Quantile Forests (TQF), a nonparametric, uncertainty-aware, tree-based regression model for multivariate targets. TQF learns conditional quantiles of directional projections $\mathbf{n}^{\top}\mathbf{y}$ as functions of the input $\mathbf{x}$ and the unit direction $\mathbf{n}$. At inference, it aggregates quantiles across many directions and reconstructs the multivariate conditional distribution by minimizing the sliced Wasserstein distance via an efficient alternating scheme with convex subproblems. Unlike classical directional-quantile approaches that typically produce only convex quantile regions and require training separate models for different directions, TQF covers all directions with a single model without imposing convexity restrictions. We evaluate TQF on synthetic and real-world datasets, and release the source code on GitHub.