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Who Leads in the Shadows? ERGM and Centrality Analysis of...
Gordon Hew, Ian McCulloh · 2025-07-21 · via cs.SI updates on arXiv.org

Following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Democratic lawmakers and their supporters increasingly migrated from mainstream social media plat-forms like X (formerly Twitter) to decentralized alternatives such as Bluesky. This study investigates how Congressional Democrats use Bluesky to form networks of influence and disseminate political messaging in a platform environment that lacks algorithmic amplification. We employ a mixed-methods approach that combines social network analysis, expo-nential random graph modeling (ERGM), and transformer-based topic mod-eling (BERTopic) to analyze follows, mentions, reposts, and discourse pat-terns among 182 verified Democratic members of Congress. Our findings show that while party leaders such as Hakeem Jeffries and Elizabeth War-ren dominate visibility metrics, overlooked figures like Marcy Kaptur, Donald Beyer, and Dwight Evans occupy structurally central positions, suggesting latent influence within the digital party ecosystem. ERGM re-sults reveal significant homophily along ideological, state, and leadership lines, with Senate leadership exhibiting lower connectivity. Topic analysis identifies both shared themes (e.g., reproductive rights, foreign conflicts) and subgroup-specific issues, with The Squad showing the most distinct discourse profile. These results demonstrate the potential of decentralized platforms to reshape intra-party communication dynamics and highlight the need for continued computational research on elite political behavior in emerging digital environments.