惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

月光博客
月光博客
C
Check Point Blog
J
Java Code Geeks
腾讯CDC
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
量子位
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
I
InfoQ
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
博客园 - Franky
V
V2EX
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
小众软件
小众软件
博客园_首页
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
博客园 - 聂微东
IT之家
IT之家

cs.SI updates on arXiv.org

Hiding in Plain Sight: Finding MAHA on Reddit Prism: Structural Symmetry Scanning via Duality-Constrained Laplacian Projection MV-Gate: Insider Threat Detection via Multi-View Behavioral Statistics and Semantic Modeling Algorithmic Cultivation: How Social Media Feeds Shape User Language Universal Dynamics of Punctuated Progress AI-Mediated Communication Can Steer Collective Opinion CitePrism: Human-in-the-Loop AI for Citation Auditing and Editorial Integrity Explainable Detection of Depression Status Shifts from User Digital Traces Can Visual Mamba Improve AI-Generated Image Detection? An In-Depth Investigation ScioMind: Cognitively Grounded Multi-Agent Social Simulation with Anchoring-Based Belief Dynamics and Dynamic Profiles Humanwashing -- It Should Leave You Feeling Dirty When Do LLMs Generate Realistic Social Networks? A Multi-Dimensional Study of Culture, Language, Scale, and Method Moltbook Moderation: Uncovering Hidden Intent Through Multi-Turn Dialogue Linking Extreme Discourse to Structural Polarization in Signed Interaction Networks Predicting Channel Closures in the Lightning Network with Machine Learning Latent Causal Void: Explicit Missing-Context Reconstruction for Misinformation Detection Predictive Maps of Multi-Agent Reasoning: A Successor-Representation Spectrum for LLM Communication Topologies Large Language Models for Causal Relations Extraction in Social Media: A Validation Framework for Disaster Intelligence When Can Digital Personas Reliably Approximate Human Survey Findings? RAwR: Role-Aware Rewiring via Approximate Equitable Partition GravityGraphSAGE: Link Prediction in Directed Attributed Graphs Structure-Centric Graph Foundation Model via Geometric Bases Attention-based graph neural networks: a survey When AI Meets Science: Research Diversity, Interdisciplinarity, Visibility, and Retractions across Disciplines in a Global Surge Scalable inference of spatial regions and temporal signatures from time series Can LLMs Emulate Human Belief Dynamics? Predicting Post Virality with Temporal Cross-Attention over Trend Signals H3: A Healthcare Three-Hop Index for Physician Referral Network Prediction Dynamic Graph with Similarity-Aware Attention Graph Neural Network for Recommender Systems Spectral Graph Sparsification Preserves Representation Geometry in Graph Neural Networks
Dynamic Hawkes Processes for Discovering Time-evolving Co...
Maya Okawa, Tomoharu Iwata, Yusuke Tanaka, Hiroyuki Toda, Takesh · 2021-05-24 · via cs.SI updates on arXiv.org

Sequences of events including infectious disease outbreaks, social network activities, and crimes are ubiquitous and the data on such events carry essential information about the underlying diffusion processes between communities (e.g., regions, online user groups). Modeling diffusion processes and predicting future events are crucial in many applications including epidemic control, viral marketing, and predictive policing. Hawkes processes offer a central tool for modeling the diffusion processes, in which the influence from the past events is described by the triggering kernel. However, the triggering kernel parameters, which govern how each community is influenced by the past events, are assumed to be static over time. In the real world, the diffusion processes depend not only on the influences from the past, but also the current (time-evolving) states of the communities, e.g., people's awareness of the disease and people's current interests. In this paper, we propose a novel Hawkes process model that is able to capture the underlying dynamics of community states behind the diffusion processes and predict the occurrences of events based on the dynamics. Specifically, we model the latent dynamic function that encodes these hidden dynamics by a mixture of neural networks. Then we design the triggering kernel using the latent dynamic function and its integral. The proposed method, termed DHP (Dynamic Hawkes Processes), offers a flexible way to learn complex representations of the time-evolving communities' states, while at the same time it allows to computing the exact likelihood, which makes parameter learning tractable. Extensive experiments on four real-world event datasets show that DHP outperforms five widely adopted methods for event prediction.