Abstract:In 2025 and 2026, two events settled questions that had until then been speculative. In the first, a large language model executed the great majority of a state-aligned cyber-espionage campaign on its own, with human operators intervening at only a few decision points. In the second, the most capable cyber-relevant model was placed under a controlled-access program limited to a vetted set of United States technology firms, allied governments, and European standards bodies; that perimeter included no African government, operator, or university. Together the two events establish the argument of this paper: frontier language models have become a decisive instrument of cyber operations, and that instrument is built, owned, and rationed within a small circle from which Africa is absent. The paper documents Africa's exclusion on every count. The continent does not build frontier models, cannot yet operate them, and cannot, for now, obtain the most capable ones. The operational deficit is set out along three axes, skilled people, compute and electrical power, and investment, each measured against current figures; meanwhile AI-enabled fraud is already mounting against African mobile-money systems, the part of the digital economy the continent leads. Two constraints follow: the gating of frontier models by their developers, which no African decision can open, and a chosen dependence on infrastructure vendors now caught in geopolitical restriction. Because comparable but ungated models are forecast to spread within six to twelve months, the paper argues for a response that operates inside that window through threat-intelligence sharing, governance adoption, and partnership, undertaken by Africans on their own terms.
From: Mikael Gorsky [view email]
[v1]
Thu, 18 Jun 2026 11:22:48 UTC (135 KB)
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