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Joel Embiid leans on his knees during a game as questions grow around his injury return timeline ahead of the 76ers’ playoff run.

The Philadelphia 76ers hope to get Joel Embiid back before their first-round playoff series against the Boston Celtics is finished, but will they? A timeline set by previous NBA players who have undergone the same surgery as Embiid allows an evidence-based prediction.

The 76ers beat the Orlando Magic 109-97 Wednesday in an Eastern Conference play-in game, punching their ticket to the first round of the playoffs, where they will face the season’s most surprising team, the No. 2-seeded Boston Celtics. But the Sixers beat the Magic with six-time All-Star center Embiid watching in street clothes.

Philadelphia heads to Boston for Game 1 on Sunday. Will Embiid be ready to play by then?

Embiid Underwent Emergency Appendectomy

According to media reports, Embiid’s problem is not an injury, at least not in the conventional basketball sense. Instead, on April 9, Embiid suffered an attack of appendicitis, a common but, if left untreated, potentially life-threatening ailment described by the Cleveland Clinic as a “clogged, infected and inflamed” appendix.

The treatment for appendicitis is surgical removal of the appendix, and that is the procedure Embiid underwent on April 9. Embiid was reportedly discharged from the hospital the following day and felt well enough to attend the Sixers vs. Magic play-in game, watching from the bench, on April 15.

But sitting on the bench in street clothes is a long way from playing in an NBA playoff game. And it now appears that Embiid has only a remote chance of playing in the 76ers playoff series against the Celtics.

Here is the schedule of games for that series.

So, to play even in Game 7, if the series goes that far, Embiid would need to be fully recovered and ready to play by May 2, 23 days after his emergency appendectomy surgery. Based on the relatively small number of previous NBA appendectomy cases, that goal seems unlikely, but not impossible.

How Long Have NBA Players Taken to Return After Appendectomy?

The 23-day period lines up exactly with the average amount of time that previous NBA players have taken to return from appendix surgery, according to NBA injury analyst Joel Stotts.

“Appendectomies are relatively uncommon in the NBA but have occurred with players like Grant Hill and OG Anunoby undergoing the procedure,” Stotts wrote on his social media account. “The average time lost for in-season surgery is ~23 days (10.2 games). Median = 18 days.”

The median is the exact midpoint, meaning half of all NBA players have taken longer than 18 days to return, and half have come back sooner.

But there are several factors that will come to bear on Embiid’s individual case. The 76ers have not confirmed what type of surgery Embiid underwent. If he had the more minimally invasive laparoscopic appendectomy, the recovery time is shorter, lining up with the times detailed by Stotts.

If, in the less likely event that Embiid had “open” surgery, which involves a single, large incision in the abdomen, recovery time can take up to six weeks. Embiid’s appearance at Wednesday’s game would appear to indicate that he was given the less severe laparoscopic procedure.

So when is Embiid coming back? Given his lengthy medical history of injuries and other ailments, as well as the fact that he is over 30 years old (32), Embiid would be an unlikely candidate for a miracle recovery. That would put his return no earlier than Game 7 of the first-round series against the Celtics.