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The Baltimore Ravens have been given a "minor steps" warning about two-time NFL rushing champion Derrick Henry.

He remains arguably the premier running back in the NFL, but the Baltimore Ravens can’t ignore a “minor steps” warning about Derrick Henry. A warning signalling worrying trends in the two-time rushing champion’s underlying stats, trends that cost the Ravens at critical moments during a disappointing 2025 season.

The warning comes from ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, who placed the Ravens 16th in his ranking of the league’s best skill-position groups entering the 2026 campaign. While Barnwell acknowledged “key players are back for the Ravens, which might make this drop out of the top 10 seem a little surprising,” he pointed to “minor steps back across the board.”

Henry contributed to the reversal of fortunes, despite “averaging 5.2 yards per carry, but the legendary back saw his success rate fall from 47.4% to 42%, with the latter figure coming in just above league average.”

Barnwell also noted “Henry continues to see his passing game role fade, turns 33 late in the season and might have cost the Ravens a playoff spot with his fumbling issues. King Henry now has 13 fumbles over the past four years, tied for third among all backs.”

This isn’t the first time the Ravens have been received criticism for still keeping faith with 30-something Henry. There are strong arguments for why his career might be locked into a downward trajectory, but there are equally compelling reasons why the five-time Pro Bowler can buck the trends.

Derrick Henry Won’t Be a Problem for 2 Reasons

Despite any issues with ball security and declining numbers, Henry’s ongoing value to the Ravens is obvious. He remains a true workhorse, one able to steadily work defenses over between the tackles, but also still capable of ripping off long runs in an instant.

Henry showcased his enduring big-play threat on this 46-yard touchdown run against the Buffalo Bills from last season.

While it’s reasonable to wonder whether Henry’s headed for a steep decline during his 11th season in the pros, there’s also a precedent for great backs staying dominant late in their careers.

Hall of Famers like John Riggins and Marcus Allen both remained ultra-productive well into their 30s. Riggins rushed for a then-NFL record 24 touchdowns for Washington during his age-34 season in 1983.

Allen, meanwhile, was still rushing for double-digit touchdowns for the Kansas City Chiefs during his 16th and final season in 1997, per Pro Football Reference.

Henry’s chances of replicating what Allen and Riggins managed hinges on one key change made by the Ravens this offseason.

Ravens’ New Offense Can Boost Running Backs

Declan Doyle replacing Todd Monken as offensive coordinator is good news for Henry and every other running back on the roster for the Ravens. While Monken was sometimes erratic with run-pass balance, Doyle spent last season as OC for the Chicago Bears, who ran the ball 505 times on his watch.

That’s actually two fewer rushing attempts than the Ravens tallied during their final year with Monken calling the plays, but Doyle is still a good bet to lean on the ground game. It’s what he learned from head coach Ben Johnson in Chicago, albeit the Bears relied more on a committee approach by splitting carries between veteran D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai.

The Ravens don’t have the makings of a similar rotation after surprisingly letting change-of-pace runner Keaton Mitchell leave in free agency. Mitchell’s absence might be offset by dependable utility back Justice Hill and versatile 2026 NFL draft sixth-round pick Adam Randall, whose talents are already endorsed by Ravens’ ownership.

Randall can make an impact, but it’s more likely the Ravens will remain reliant on Henry to be the engine of their new-look offense. More than rushing attempts, he’ll benefit from Doyle having franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson operate from under center more often to better disguise run-pass intent.

That one subtle switch can keep Henry at or near the top of his position group.