On Thursday night, Chris Sale takes the mound for the Braves in what should be one of the more competitive matchups on the day against the Cubs.
Both teams sit atop their respective divisions as one of the few true challengers in the National League to the vaunted Dodgers.
The early lines have the Braves as slight favorites on Thursday with a first pitch slated for 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
Sale has continued to be a stud for the Braves since his departure from the Red Sox, winning an NL Cy Young Award in 2024 and dominating again to start this season, with a 6-2 record and 2.20 ERA through eight starts.
He will match up with reliever-turned-starter Ben Brown, who has been rock-solid this season and has been showing some prowess.
Brown pitched four innings in his first start last week on three days’ rest, giving up no hits and striking out three.
On the season, Brown is 1-1 with a 1.82 ERA in 29 ⅔ innings pitched.
His statcast profile expects a little bit of regression, but he’s for real in terms of his underlying metrics, putting him in the top 13 percent of pitchers in expected batting average allowed (.206 to opposing batters).
My issue with the Cubs at this price is that Brown isn’t fully stretched out yet.
As the season progresses, he will be a valuable contributor to their rotation but asking the bullpen to cover six innings in a game is a tough matchup considering Sale is opposite him.
For that reason, we are targeting the Braves (-138, Polymarket) as my favorite bet of the MLB slate.
My model has the Braves as 60.7 percent likely to win this game, giving us a solid three percent edge.
The play: Braves moneyline (-138, Polymarket)
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