Just two months into the MLB season, and we’re already looking at one of the most dramatic NL Cy Young races — or any award campaign for that matter — in recent memory.
It’s a six-horse race according to oddsmakers, and you could even make arguments for additional longshot candidates. The starting pitching across the National League has simply been spoiling baseball fans throughout May — and it’s been trailblazed by the historic absurdity of Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez.
He’s the chalky choice at +145, and if it wasn’t for such a competitive field, this price would be lower. This month alone, Sanchez has slung 39 straight scoreless innings through five starts, the longest streak by a southpaw in a calendar month since Babe Ruth revolutionized hitting with power in 1920.
Sanchez has allowed a measly three home runs all season, is striking out hitters in the 90th percentile, and has walked fewer hitters than he’s allowed runs.
In turn, Sanchez leads the NL with a 1.47 ERA and has pitched the most innings (79⅓). The Phillies began the year as bottom dwellers; now they’re right back in the wild card hunt thanks to Sanchez’s MLB-leading 3.3 WAR.
That’s a hard resume to doubt, but it is so clean, it begs the question of just how sustainable this all is. Sanchez’s 2.88 xERA is a sign that regression is due.
All that considered, there’s another anomaly simultaneously developing and that’s Brewers sophomore Jacon Misiorowski, whose tag of +340 should be bought sooner than later.
Amongst the other contenders in Paul Skenes, Shohei Ohtani, Chris Sale, and Chase Burns, no one is throwing the pure stuff that Misiorowski is dealing. The flamethrower’s strikeout numbers speak to that, sitting at 14.06 K/9 throughout 64 innings for a 1.83 ERA.
His month of May has looked like Nolan Ryan time-traveled from 1973: zero extra-base hits and 49 strikeouts across 31⅓ innings. He threw 202 pitches at 100 mph or harder, and only 11 times did someone make contact with that for a trip to first base.
His Statcast profile is red as a beet in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA, indicating that hitters can’t make quality contact.
The three things that Cy Young voters value the most are strikeout dominance, workload, and run prevention, with consideration for season narratives and advanced metrics.
As of this writing, Misiorowski has a five-strikeout lead over Sanchez, leading all of baseball with 100. He’s also pitched 15 ⅓ fewer innings than Sanchez, though Misiorowski’s 2.14 xERA suggests he has a safer four-month road ahead of him.
For those who view the innings gap as a risk for Misiorowski investors, I’d tell you that the market is already accounting for that risk enough to justify the wager. Let’s also consider that this has been the opening third of his first full major-league season.
Of course, you can never count out a freak stretch from Skenes, the unicorn-like abilities of Ohtani, or Sale’s defiance of twilight years, either. But Misiorowski’s success is built around bat-missing velocity and weak contact — and those are things that tend to stabilize more reliably.
THE PLAY: Jacob Misiorowski NL Cy Young Winner (+340, DraftKings)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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