With Carlos Alcaraz sidelined, the 2026 French Open is Jannik Sinner’s to lose.
The World No. 1 has ripped off 29 straight wins and won five Masters titles during that span. Perhaps most impressive is the fact that Sinner has lost just three sets during his current rip.
It’s crazy to think that four months ago, we were wondering if Sinner had fallen too far behind Alcaraz after the former dropped two of his first seven matches of the campaign.
With no Alcaraz to balance out the books, Sinner is a prohibitive -280 favorite (FanDuel Sportsbook) to complete the career Grand Slam with a triumph at the French Open.
Sinner’s chances were only helped by Thursday’s draw, which placed him in a quarter devoid of any legitimate landmines. Perhaps he gets caught by rising youngster Martin Landaluce in Round 3, but that would be a genuine stunner. His most likely foe in the quarterfinals, Ben Shelton, has lost nine straight to the Italian.
The upshot of having a heavy, in-form favorite at the top of the board is that you will find some tempting prices on players that have winning upside if Sinner slips up.
And we’ll start with one of the two players who have defeated Sinner in 2026.
I think it’s fair to say that Djokovic saves his bullets for the Grand Slam these days. He’s played just two events since he lost to Alcaraz in the Australian Open Final, and he was last seen losing to World No. 79 Dino Prizmic in the Round of 64 at the Rome Masters.
That defeat may scare some folks off Djokovic, but it was his first match in a couple of months, and it’s become a habit for him to get upset in non-majors as he gets into shape for the slams. It doesn’t worry me, especially since the 24-time Grand Slam champion got a plum draw.
He’ll likely have to deal with Joao Fonseca and one of Tommy Paul or Casper Ruud in Round 4, but things could have looked far more daunting for Djokovic, who hasn’t lost before the quarterfinals at the French Open since 2009.
With a win over Sinner in a Grand Slam already in his account this year, Djokovic is worth a look at a discounted price.
Quarter 4, which is headlined by the second favorite Alexander Zverev, is easily the most compelling of this tournament.
Joining Zverev are two of the sport’s most promising up-and-comers, Rafael Jodar and Arthur Fils, as well as Taylor Fritz.
The price on Fils stands out.
Not only has Fils been terrific during the clay-court season, but he’ll have the backing of the crowd as he tries to become the first Frenchman since Yannick Noah in 1983 to win Roland Garros.
Like with Djokovic, you’re getting a bit of a price reprieve on Medvedev in the futures market for a couple of reasons.
The Russian hasn’t fared well in recent Grand Slams, nor has he been beyond the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, but he’s one of the few players in this field that could give Sinner problems.
Medvedev is 7-10 lifetime against the World No. 1, and has played two highly competitive matches against him in 2026. He took a set off Sinner in the semifinals of the Rome Masters, and lost a pair of tiebreakers in the final at the Indian Wells Masters in March.
The Russian is mercurial and could very well go out in the first two rounds, but if he’s got his wits in Paris, he will be dangerous.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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