The Spurs learned the hardest of lessons a team can learn in Game 4.
San Antonio should have had a 50-point lead in the first half of Game 4, but allowed the Knicks to hang around, and a few runs helped New York cut the deficit and eventually win in stunning fashion.
The Spurs are now on the brink of losing in the NBA Finals in five games, but oddsmakers like their chances of forcing a Game 6 at Madison Square Garden, sitting as 5.5-point favorites at home.
It’s respect for a team that could be deserved, but the line seems high despite it being consistent with the lines for Game 1 and Game 2, where they were between 4.5 and 6.5-point favorites.
Remember, the Spurs are the youngest team in the NBA.
Will they rebound (literally and figuratively) and pull off a victory in Game 5 to show they are still alive?
I’m not so sure.
The Spurs have won every first quarter this series and six of seven against the Oklahoma City Thunder. They’re as good a bet to come out hot in Game 5 as any you’ll see.
Mitch Johnson’s group was 53-30 straight up and 56-27 against the spread in the regular season (including the NBA Cup) in the first quarter, by far the best number across the NBA.
Here’s the problem, though.
The Spurs are exhausted, which is partly to blame for their collapse in Game 4.
The Knicks have played 18 playoff games compared to 22 for the Spurs, and Victor Wembanyama was dragging along in the fourth quarter at times.
In the words of Vince Carter, “it’s over.”
The Spurs’ run is over; they’ll lose Game 5 but win the first quarter as they always do.
Stick a fork in ’em, the Knicks will be partying in downtown Manhattan some more and lift the Larry O’Brien trophy on the road.
I can’t find a book that will let you parlay a Spurs win in the first quarter (-172) and the Knicks moneyline (+178, Kalshi), but that’s how I prefer to wager on this one.
OG Anunoby is my best bet for Finals MVP.
PREDICTION: Knicks moneyline (+178, Kalshi) | Spurs win the first quarter (-172, FanDuel)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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