The Mets are looking ripe to turn their season around as they face the lowly Nationals on Thursday afternoon.
Carlos Mendoza’s group comes in as a -209 favorite on Kalshi at opening, with Freddy Peralta on the mound opposite Miles Mikolas.
Mikolas has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season, with a -0.5 WAR that’s the 11th-worst figure in the entire major leagues and the fourth-worst in all of baseball.
His 8.49 ERA is bloated by an 11 earned runs allowed earlier this year though he hasn’t pitched well in really any of his other starts this year.
Mikolas has failed to pitch into the fifth inning in five of his six starts and has allowed multiple runs in all but one of those games.
To say that even the Mets’ league-worst offense (in OPS so far this season) should be able to score runs on Thursday is an understatement.
The total for the game opened at a paltry 7.5 total runs, one of the lower totals you’ll see with a guy like Mikolas on the mound.
Peralta is the clear A-side of this matchup and makes the Mets a rightful favorite even at an exorbitant price.
In theory, Peralta should be able to make quick work of Washington, which has produced league-average offensive numbers to this point.
My models have been pointing towards the Mets as a buy-low candidate, despite how horrific things have looked early on. It may sound gross and ridiculous to consider right now, but that same model even recommends the Mets to make the playoffs at +235 on DraftKings.
Mendoza appears to have held onto this job by the skin of his teeth, but I still think they are a better team than we’ve seen.
Back Mendoza’s group to lay on the runs Thursday afternoon after a night game on Wednesday, with -1.5 coming in at +100.
I don’t have a bet on the total but I lean over 7.5 if you want to play the total
It’s not available at the time of writing but “yes runs first inning” is a target at plus money, as is the over for the first five innings.
PREDICTION: Mets -1.5 (+100, Fanatics)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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