Pep Guardiola believes if Manchester City replicate their second-half Carabao Cup final display against Arsenal “for 95 minutes” in Sunday’s pivotal title meeting with Mikel Arteta’s side they will win, though the manager expects his opposite number to make adjustments for this key clash.

Arsenal dominated initially when the teams met last month at Wembley before City gradually became ascendant, Guardiola’s side in control after the break as two goals from Nico O’Reilly claimed the trophy. Guardiola was asked if City would prevail again at the Etihad Stadium if they perform as they did at Wembley. “If we play like the second half during 95 minutes and they play like the second half during 95 minutes, we are going to win,” said the manager.

“But football is unpredictable. I know Mikel a little, they are going to adjust something and we have to be prepared. At the end it’s more simple, it’s how your players play individually.”

City’s victory in the Carabao Cup final could be viewed as a significant psychological boost. “Yeah but at the same time maybe if we’d been defeated our warnings [making us tougher] were ready,” said Guardiola. “I don’t know how we will approach it. The Carabao Cup is important but the Premier League is much more.”

If Arsenal are victorious on Sunday they would move nine points ahead of City having played 33 games, one more than Guardiola’s team. The north London club were last champions in 2004 and the City manager believes that gives them extra motivation. Guardiola said: “Twenty two years without winning – does that give you [an edge] knowing that if they win it will be over? There is a mental aspect. We respect them so much with the quality they have but how we approach and what we have to do, I always focus on that tactically and mentally.”

Despite the criticism Arsenal get for their pragmatic approach, Guardiola enjoys watching them. “Yeah, people are so demanding: the media, supporters,” he said. “I enjoy watching them, I learn a lot of things.

“What people want is to win. What we cannot fight against is 22 years without winning the Premier League, so they have something that is unique. That is something that we cannot play against, we have to focus on the way we have to play.”

As for City’s team news, Rúben Dias remains injured but O’Reilly is available.