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Coupling-Robust Accuracy in Multiphysics Physics Informed Neural Networks via Kronecker-Preconditioned Optimization Non-normal spectral signatures of instability in neural network training dynamics Optimization of randomized neural networks for transfer operator approximation Selective Ambulance Dispatch Under Contextual Travel-Time Uncertainty LLAMA LIMA: A Living Meta-Analysis on the Effects of Generative AI on Learning Mathematics Neural Flow Operators can Approximate any Operator: Abstract Frameworks and Universal Approximations LLMs as Noisy Channels: A Shannon Perspective on Model Capacity and Scaling Laws On the Stability of Spherical Hellinger-Kantorovich Flows and Their Implications for Differential Privacy Training-Free Looped Transformers Move on Muon : A Hamiltonian probability gradient flow perspective of Muon optimizer Entrywise Error Bounds for Spectral Ranking with Semi-Random Adversaries Asymmetric Scaling Laws from Sparse Features Is Dimensionality a Barrier for Retrieval Models? RA-DCA: A Randomized Active-Set DCA for Directional Stationarity in Max-Structured DC Programs Commutator-Induced Uncertainty in VAEs Weisfeiler-Leman Is Incomplete on Simple Spectrum Graphs, so Canonicalize Them Sparse In-Network Learning via Shortest-Path Backpropagation and Finite-Rate Gating Instance-Optimal Estimation with Multiple LLM Judges on a Budget Entropy Equivalence Testing Expand More, Shrink Less: Shaping Effective-Rank Dynamics for Dense Scaling in Recommendation Any-Dimensional Invariant Universality Operationalizing Individual Fairness via Gradient Descent and Bradley-Terry Models Anytime Training with Schedule-Free Spectral Optimization Diffusion-based Denoising Beats Vanilla Score Matching in Parameter Estimation: A Theoretical Explanation Resilience Characterization of AI-Native Wireless Receivers via Persistent Homology The General Theory of Localization Methods Group-Algebraic Tensors: Provably-optimal Equivariant Learning and Physical Symmetry Discovery General Lower Bounds for Differentially Private Federated Learning with Arbitrary Public-Transcript Interactions PilotWiMAE: Pilot-Native Representation Learning for Wireless Channels Proximal basin hopping: global optimization with guarantees
Safe and Sharp Honest Inference for Nonparametric Estimat...
Zihao Yuan, Sven Klaassen · 2026-05-05 · via math updates on arXiv.org

Calibration of an honest confidence interval means choosing, for each $α\in(0,1)$, how the corresponding $α$-critical value is converted into a radius yielding coverage probability at least $1-α$. Standard-normal critical-value calibration (SNC) is the default route for many confidence intervals based on nonparametric smoothers in nonparametric econometrics. However, this calibration method creates a structural difficulty: the normalization yielding a limiting distribution also makes a small estimation bias become a non-negligible inferential bias. We take a different calibration route by combining the tail control of empirical Bernstein inequalities with a fixed-length-radius optimization from bias-aware inference. We establish the formal theory in canonical scalar-covariate regression and density settings, with the regression theory ranging from local-polynomial to weighted-average estimators. The resulting empirical Bernstein confidence intervals (EBCIs) are "safe" and "sharp". Safety means that, uniformly over functions with some $S$-th order local smoothness, both one-sided and two-sided intervals attain the nominal coverage level up to a remainder $o(n^{-\frac{2S}{2S+1}})$, or an exponential remainder in bounded or sub-Gaussian settings. Sharpness means that interval widths shrink at the minimax rate $n^{-\frac{S}{2S+1}}$. Moreover, in the small-$α$ regime, the EBCI radius is first-order aligned with the radii of bias-aware fixed-length confidence intervals. Thus, EBCI safely converts correctly specified smoothness into both coverage accuracy and interval-length efficiency. The contribution is not a new bias-control approach, but a new calibration principle for the radius of a confidence interval. The method can be combined with existing ideas such as bias-aware inference (BA) and robust bias correction (RBC), while avoiding the bias inflation induced by SNC.