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Coupling-Robust Accuracy in Multiphysics Physics Informed Neural Networks via Kronecker-Preconditioned Optimization Non-normal spectral signatures of instability in neural network training dynamics Optimization of randomized neural networks for transfer operator approximation Selective Ambulance Dispatch Under Contextual Travel-Time Uncertainty LLAMA LIMA: A Living Meta-Analysis on the Effects of Generative AI on Learning Mathematics Neural Flow Operators can Approximate any Operator: Abstract Frameworks and Universal Approximations LLMs as Noisy Channels: A Shannon Perspective on Model Capacity and Scaling Laws On the Stability of Spherical Hellinger-Kantorovich Flows and Their Implications for Differential Privacy Training-Free Looped Transformers Move on Muon : A Hamiltonian probability gradient flow perspective of Muon optimizer Entrywise Error Bounds for Spectral Ranking with Semi-Random Adversaries Asymmetric Scaling Laws from Sparse Features Is Dimensionality a Barrier for Retrieval Models? RA-DCA: A Randomized Active-Set DCA for Directional Stationarity in Max-Structured DC Programs Commutator-Induced Uncertainty in VAEs Weisfeiler-Leman Is Incomplete on Simple Spectrum Graphs, so Canonicalize Them Sparse In-Network Learning via Shortest-Path Backpropagation and Finite-Rate Gating Instance-Optimal Estimation with Multiple LLM Judges on a Budget Entropy Equivalence Testing Expand More, Shrink Less: Shaping Effective-Rank Dynamics for Dense Scaling in Recommendation Any-Dimensional Invariant Universality Operationalizing Individual Fairness via Gradient Descent and Bradley-Terry Models Anytime Training with Schedule-Free Spectral Optimization Diffusion-based Denoising Beats Vanilla Score Matching in Parameter Estimation: A Theoretical Explanation Resilience Characterization of AI-Native Wireless Receivers via Persistent Homology The General Theory of Localization Methods Group-Algebraic Tensors: Provably-optimal Equivariant Learning and Physical Symmetry Discovery General Lower Bounds for Differentially Private Federated Learning with Arbitrary Public-Transcript Interactions PilotWiMAE: Pilot-Native Representation Learning for Wireless Channels Proximal basin hopping: global optimization with guarantees
Risk or Replace: Efficient Asymptotics for Data-Driven Ma...
Poulad Moradi, Joachim Arts, Melvin Drent, Collin Drent · 2026-04-03 · via math updates on arXiv.org

Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is an approach that plans interventions for deteriorating systems according to their observed operational state. CBM reduces unplanned downtime and extends usable lifetime. We study a heterogeneous population of components that degrade over time according to a stochastic processes with non-negative and i.i.d. increments that are characterized by component-specific parameters that remain unobservable to the decision maker. We rely on degradation data to estimate these parameters and determine replacement actions at equidistant epochs. The goal is to minimize the long-run average cost, which incorporates fixed replacement costs, failure costs, and operating costs. This problem can be formulated as a high-dimensional partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which is generally intractable. We develop a tractable, data-driven CBM policy that estimates the optimal policy of a hypothetical Oracle that has full information of the underlying degradation parameters and call this policy the Estimated Oracle's Optimal Policy (EOP). We introduce a scaling regime where both the failure thresholds and cost parameters increase proportionally, reflecting practical settings in which component lifetimes and maintenance costs are large relative to the time between two consecutive CBM decision moments. We show that the regret of the EOP, defined as the difference between its long-run average cost and that of the Oracle, converges to zero in the scaling regime when the parameter estimator is consistent. Across extensive experiments using both real and simulated data, the EOP achieves very low regret and, whenever the optimal POMDP policy can be computed exactly, a negligible optimality gap.