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stat updates on arXiv.org

A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Multi-Armed Sequential Hypothesis Testing by Betting
Ricardo J. Sandoval, Ian Waudby-Smith, Michael I. Jordan · 2026-03-19 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

We consider a variant of sequential testing by betting where, at each time step, the statistician is presented with multiple data sources (arms) and obtains data by choosing one of the arms. We consider the composite global null hypothesis $\mathscr{P}$ that all arms are null in a certain sense (e.g. all dosages of a treatment are ineffective) and we are interested in rejecting $\mathscr{P}$ in favor of a composite alternative $\mathscr{Q}$ where at least one arm is non-null (e.g. there exists an effective treatment dosage). We posit an optimality desideratum that we describe informally as follows: even if several arms are non-null, we seek $e$-processes and sequential tests whose performance are as strong as the ones that have oracle knowledge about which arm generates the most evidence against $\mathscr{P}$. Formally, we generalize notions of log-optimality and expected rejection time optimality to more than one arm, obtaining matching lower and upper bounds for both. A key technical device in this optimality analysis is a modified upper-confidence-bound-like algorithm for unobservable but sufficiently "estimable" rewards. In the design of this algorithm, we derive nonasymptotic concentration inequalities for optimal wealth growth rates in the sense of Kelly [1956]. These may be of independent interest.