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Interpretable deep convolutional model for nonlinear mult...
Domjan Baric, Davor Horvatic · 2025-01-08 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

We introduce the Deep Convolutional Interpreter for Time Series (DCIts), a deep-learning architecture for nonlinear multivariate time series that provides sample-specific, locally interpretable descriptions of the underlying interaction structure. Unlike standard black-box forecasters, DCIts learns a time- and lag-dependent transition tensor explicitly factorized into two components: a Focuser, which selects relevant source series and time lags via a sparse masking mechanism, and a Modeler, which assigns signed coefficients to these selected interactions. This decomposition yields a local lag-adjacency structure and signed source-lag contributions for every forecast instance, enabling direct inspection of effective connectivity; when higher-order branches are activated, the same framework yields order-resolved elementwise polynomial contributions. Architecturally, DCIts uses a diverse bank of convolutional filters to capture temporal and cross-variable dependencies, which are mapped through a bottleneck network to the transition tensor. On controlled benchmark datasets with a known interaction structure, we demonstrate that DCIts achieves competitive forecasting error relative to a strong interpretable baseline while recovering stable, signed, lag-resolved interaction patterns. The framework thus prioritizes intrinsic interpretability, using forecasting accuracy as a faithfulness constraint rather than the sole objective.