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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
The Dynamic-Probabilistic Consistency Gap in Chaotic Surr...
Andre Herz, Matthijs Pals, Daniel Durstewitz, Georgia Koppe · 2026-05-30 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) aims to learn surrogate models that capture the dynamics underlying time-series data. Reliably deploying these surrogates requires uncertainty estimates consistent with the learned dynamics. We expose a dynamic-probabilistic consistency (DPC) gap: the pursuit of finite-horizon probabilistic objectives can degrade dynamics or decouple predictive uncertainty from the local tangent dynamics it ought to reflect. We isolate three mechanisms behind this gap: core collapse, noise masking, and blind uncertainty. Specifically, we show that open-loop Gaussian rollout objectives can penalize Jacobian-generated covariance growth in chaotic systems, encouraging optimization shortcuts that weaken physical expansion or decouple uncertainty from it. To mitigate this gap, we propose KAFFEE (Kalman-Aware Framework For Ergodic Emulation), a differentiable extended Kalman filter-based training framework that evaluates likelihood on local predictive residuals (innovations) while transporting covariance through learned local Jacobians. On stochastic hyperchaotic Lorenz-96, KAFFEE reduces the identified failure modes, improves reconstruction of dynamical invariants relative to open-loop objectives, and maintains competitive predictive scores. We further show that the DPC gap appears when probabilistically adapting a DSR foundation model across 13 chaotic systems, where KAFFEE enables in-context Bayesian filtering while largely preserving zero-shot dynamics.