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Calibeating for general proper losses: A Bregman divergence approach Dimension-Free Convergence of Discrete Diffusion Models: Adjoint Equations Induce the Right Space XAI and Statistical Analysis for Reliable Intrusion Detection in the UAVIDS-2025 Dataset: From Tree to Hybrid and Tabular DNN Ensembles Reasoning Models Don't Just Think Longer, They Move Differently TabPFN-3: Technical Report Reframing preprocessing selection as model-internal calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy: A large-scale benchmark of operator-adaptive PLS and Ridge models Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Online Learning-to-Defer with Varying Experts Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows Exact Stiefel Optimization for Probabilistic PLS: Closed-Form Updates, Error Bounds, and Calibrated Uncertainty A Composite Activation Function for Learning Stable Binary Representations Adaptive Calibration in Non-Stationary Environments Real vs. Semi-Simulated: Rethinking Evaluation for Treatment Effect Estimation Federated Language Models Under Bandwidth Budgets: Distillation Rates and Conformal Coverage On Variance Reduction in Learning Mean Flows When Attention Beats Fourier: Multi-Scale Transformers for PDE Solving on Irregular Domains A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? 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A General Framework for Joint Multi-State Models
Félix Laplante, Christophe Ambroise · 2025-10-08 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Conventional joint modeling approaches generally characterize the relationship between longitudinal biomarkers and discrete event occurrences within terminal, recurring or competing risk settings, thereby offering a limited representation of complex, multi-state trajectories. We propose a general multi-state joint modeling framework that unifies longitudinal biomarker dynamics with multi-state time-to-event processes defined on arbitrary directed graphs. The proposed framework also accomodates nonlinear longitudinal submodels and scalable inference via stochastic gradient descent. This formulation encompasses both Markovian and semi-Markovian transition structures, allowing recurrent cycles and terminal absorptions to be naturally represented. The longitudinal and event processes are linked through shared latent structures within nonlinear mixed-effects models, extending classical joint modeling formulations. We derive the complete likelihood, model selection criteria, and develop scalable inference procedures based on stochastic gradient descent to enable high-dimensional and large-scale applications. In addition, we formulate a dynamic prediction framework that provides individualized state-transition probabilities and personalized risk assessments along complex event trajectories. Through simulation and application to the PAQUID cohort, we demonstrate accurate parameter recovery and individualized prediction.