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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Ask for More Than Bayes Optimal: A Theory of Indecisions ...
Mohamed Ndaoud, Peter Radchenko, Bradley Rava · 2024-12-17 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize indecisions, observations we do not automate. For difficult problems, the target accuracy may be unattainable without abstention. By using indecisions, we can control the misclassification rate to any user-specified level, even below the Bayes optimal error rate, while minimizing overall indecision mass. We provide a complete characterization of the minimax risk in selective classification, establishing continuity and monotonicity properties that enable optimal indecision selection. We revisit selective inference via the Neyman-Pearson testing framework, where indecision enables control of type 2 error given fixed type 1 error probability. For both classification and testing, we propose a finite-sample calibration method with non-asymptotic guarantees, proving plug-in classifiers remain consistent and that accuracy-based calibration effectively controls indecision mass. In the binary Gaussian mixture model, we uncover the first sharp phase transition in selective inference, showing minimal indecision can yield near-optimal accuracy even under poor class separation. Experiments on Gaussian mixtures and real datasets confirm that small indecision proportions yield substantial accuracy gains, making indecision a principled tool for risk control.