惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

V
Visual Studio Blog
A
About on SuperTechFans
J
Java Code Geeks
G
Google Developers Blog
L
LangChain Blog
小众软件
小众软件
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
P
Proofpoint News Feed
博客园 - 【当耐特】
IT之家
IT之家
F
Fortinet All Blogs
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
V
V2EX
博客园 - Franky
博客园_首页
雷峰网
雷峰网
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
Vercel News
Vercel News
B
Blog
月光博客
月光博客
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell

stat updates on arXiv.org

A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Evaluating LLMs When They Do Not Know the Answer: Statist...
Zihan Dong, Zhixian Zhang, Yang Zhou, Can Jin, Ruijia Wu, Linjun · 2026-02-03 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Evaluating mathematical reasoning in LLMs is constrained by limited benchmark sizes and inherent model stochasticity, yielding high-variance accuracy estimates and unstable rankings across platforms. On difficult problems, an LLM may fail to produce a correct final answer, yet still provide reliable pairwise comparison signals indicating which of two candidate solutions is better. We leverage this observation to design a statistically efficient evaluation framework that combines standard labeled outcomes with pairwise comparison signals obtained by having models judge auxiliary reasoning chains. Treating these comparison signals as control variates, we develop a semiparametric estimator based on the efficient influence function (EIF) for the setting where auxiliary reasoning chains are observed. This yields a one-step estimator that achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound, guarantees strict variance reduction over naive sample averaging, and admits asymptotic normality for principled uncertainty quantification. Across simulations, our one-step estimator substantially improves ranking accuracy, with gains increasing as model output noise grows. Experiments on GPQA Diamond, AIME 2025, and GSM8K further demonstrate more precise performance estimation and more reliable model rankings, especially in small-sample regimes where conventional evaluation is pretty unstable.