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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Multi-pathogen situational assessment and forecasting of ...
[Submitted on 2 Mar 2026 (v1), last revised 9 Jun 2026 (this ver · 2026-06-10 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:Real-time analysis of epidemic trends and forecasts can help support public health planning and the response to seasonal respiratory disease. Here, we present two models that were used in a 2025 New Zealand winter situational assessment programme for three respiratory pathogens: SARS-CoV-2, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Data on SARS-CoV-2 were obtained from the national Covid-19 surveillance system; data on influenza and RSV were limited to a sentinel hospital surveillance programme. Models were run weekly from May to October 2025 on these real-time disease surveillance data and provided a quantitative representation of the current epidemic trend, along with estimates of the epidemic growth rate and 28-day ahead forecasts of case incidence. Model results and interpretation were provided in weekly reports to public health partners as part of a trans-Tasman winter programme run by the Australia--Aotearoa Consortium for Epidemic Forecasting and Analytics (ACEFA). We compare in-season results that were included in these reports to a retrospective analysis of the complete data for the season. We conclude that real-time analyses performed reasonably well, and identify some areas for improvement in future winter situational assessment programmes.

Submission history

From: Michael Plank [view email]
[v1] Mon, 2 Mar 2026 02:15:51 UTC (4,615 KB)
[v2] Tue, 9 Jun 2026 02:05:57 UTC (6,383 KB)