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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Integrating Local and Global Entropy for Uncertainty Quan...
Johanne Medina, Tianyi Zhou, Keivin Isufaj, Aristides Gionis, Sa · 2026-06-03 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Large language models hallucinate confidently, making uncertainty quantification (UQ) essential for reliable deployment. Existing methods rely predominantly on token-level signals, leaving the geometric structure of intermediate hidden states underused. In this paper, we take the geometric complexity of hidden-state matrices as a measure of the global uncertainty of LLMs, while treating token-level uncertainty estimation as a local metric. We show that hidden-state geometric entropy (global uncertainty) and token-level entropy (local uncertainty) are statistically near-orthogonal, capturing distinct failure regimes for reliability prediction. In particular, global geometry recovers the confident-but-wrong failure mode that local signals systematically miss. Building on this, we propose Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU), an unsupervised, single-pass score that fuses the two signals via a multiplicative gate. Across three model families and six benchmarks, GLU matches or outperforms all unsupervised baselines while requiring only a single forward pass and remaining length-normalized and architecture-agnostic.