惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
小众软件
小众软件
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
博客园_首页
博客园 - 司徒正美
Jina AI
Jina AI
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
C
Check Point Blog
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
B
Blog RSS Feed
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
D
DataBreaches.Net
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
G
Google Developers Blog
L
LangChain Blog
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
博客园 - 【当耐特】
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
雷峰网
雷峰网
量子位
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
I
InfoQ

stat updates on arXiv.org

A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo: A Machine Learning View ...
Fengpei Li, Haoxian Chen, Jiahe Lin, Arkin Gupta, Xiaowei Tan, H · 2024-12-16 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulations often become computationally prohibitive, especially for nested, multi-level, or path-dependent evaluations lacking effective variance reduction techniques. While machine learning (ML) surrogates appear as natural alternatives, naive replacements typically introduce unquantifiable biases. We address this challenge by introducing Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo (PEMC), a framework that leverages modern ML models as learned predictors, using cheap and parallelizable simulation as features, to output unbiased evaluation with reduced variance and runtime. PEMC can also be viewed as a "modernized" view of control variates, where we consider the overall computation-cost-aware variance reduction instead of per-replication reduction, while bypassing the closed-form mean function requirement and maintaining the advantageous unbiasedness and uncertainty quantifiability of Monte Carlo. We illustrate PEMC's broader efficacy and versatility through three examples: first, equity derivatives such as variance swaps under stochastic local volatility models; second, interest rate derivatives such as swaption pricing under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) interest-rate model. Finally, we showcase PEMC in a socially significant context - ambulance dispatch and hospital load balancing - where accurate mortality rate estimates are key for ethically sensitive decision-making. Across these diverse scenarios, PEMC consistently reduces variance while preserving unbiasedness, highlighting its potential as a powerful enhancement to standard Monte Carlo baselines.