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Beyond Binary Edits Robust Multimodal Knowledge Editing with Adversarial Subspace Alignment Agentic Proving for Program Verification MemAudit: Post-hoc Auditing of Poisoned Agent Memory via Causal Attribution and Structural Anomaly Detection OpenSkillEval: Automatically Auditing the Open Skill Ecosystem for LLM Agents One Policy, Infinite NPCs: Persona-Traceable Shared RL Policies for Scalable Game Agents How Human-Like Are Large Language Models? A Register-Aware Linguistic Evaluation Framework Benchmarking Google Embeddings 2 against Open-Source Models for Multilingual Dense Retrieval and RAG Systems Structure-Guided Entity Resolution: Fine-Tuning LLMs for Robust Name Matching in Complex Linguistic Contexts Solving the Aircraft Disassembly Scheduling Problem Co-ReAct: Rubrics as Step-Level Collaborators for ReAct Agents CP or DP? Why Not Both: A Case Study in the Partial Shop Scheduling Problem Asking For An Old Friend: Diagnosing and Mitigating Temporal Failure Modes in LLM-based Statutory Question Answering EDGE-OPD: Internalizing Privileged Context with Evidence Guided On-Policy Distillation ARES: Automated Rubric Synthesis for Scalable LLM Reinforcement Learning SSDAU: Structured Semantic Data Augmentation for Joint Entity and Relation Extraction Naturalistic measure of social norms alignment Articulatory strategy as a source of variation in acoustic vowel dynamics When Planning Fails Despite Correct Execution: On Epistemic Calibration for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems EquiSumm : A Gender Bias-Aware Framework for Inclusive Tweet Summarization Metacognition as Reward: Reinforcing LLM Reasoning via Knowledge and Regulation Signals From Correctness to Preference: A Framework for Personalized Agentic Reinforcement Learning Cultural Adaptation in Large Language Models for Political Discourse Emotion Recognition in Sign Language Conversation ClimateChat-300K: A Multi-Modal Facebook Dataset for Understanding Diverse Perspectives in Climate Communication AraHopeCorpus: Annotation Guidelines and Dataset for Hope Speech in Arabic Social Media Crisis Discourse Human-in-the-Loop Multi-Agent Ventilator Decision Support with Contextual Bandit Preference Learning Convergence Without Understanding: When Language Models Agree on Representations but Disagree on Reasoning DART: Semantic Recoverability for Structured Tool Agents Ontological Knowledge Blocks: Executable Compliance and Profile-Based Validation for Trustworthy AI Systems Parallel Context Compaction for Long-Horizon LLM Agent Serving
Proper Scoring Rules for Agentic Uncertainty Quantification
Suresh Raghu, Satwik Pandey, Shashwat Pandey · 2026-05-24 · via cs updates on arXiv.org

Language-model agents increasingly emit uncertainty signals throughout a trajectory, but existing agentic UQ evaluations often conflate ranking usefulness with probabilistic truthfulness. AUROC, AUPRC, risk-coverage, Trajectory ECE, and scalarized trajectory scores evaluate discrimination, binwise calibration, or collapsed summaries, but do not strictly elicit the full prefix-conditioned success-probability trace $q_t = P^π(Y=1 | H_t)$. Building on prequential proper scoring, we introduce the Trajectory Proper Score (TPS), a predictor-agnostic family of strictly proper trajectory-level scoring rules for any per-step uncertainty signal calibrated into a probability of eventual success. We prove that TPS strictly elicits the success-probability process under complete observation, within the chosen score family and weight schedule. We extend the construction to administratively censored trajectories by projecting the complete-data score onto the observable stopped prefix, yielding an exact $q_Z$-weighted reduced score and a tractable approximation when $q_Z$ is unestimated. We further show that common trajectory evaluators target weaker objects than the full prefix-conditioned probability process: Trajectory ECE is resolution-blind, while scalarized Trajectory Brier elicits only the collapsed scalar, not the full trace. Experiments on StrategyQA, Tau2-Bench, HotpotQA, and WebShop show that these theoretical distinctions are operationally visible: probability recalibration can substantially change TPS while leaving rank metrics nearly unchanged, and the tractable censored approximation can change the verdict relative to complete-only evaluation.