Former NBC News chief political analyst Chuck Todd warned President Donald Trump on Friday that he could soon be facing a major defection within his own party. Trump attacked Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in a speech earlier in the day, a clip of which Todd shared, along with making the case that she could soon start caucusing with the Senate Democrats.

“The more Trump goes after Murkowski, the more likely the real number Dems will need to take control of the Senate is ‘3’ not 4 — as she has hinted at before, she can decide to caucus with the other side if she chooses,” Todd argued, noting that the GOP only has a slim 4-vote majority at the moment.

“And if a Dem (Peltola)wins the AK Senate seat, it would be on brand for her to say, ‘my state has indicated they want a Dem senate….’” Todd added.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) currently holds a lead in the polls over two-term incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK). Alaska holds open jungle primaries, so all the candidates on the ballot compete together in the primary, with the top four advancing to a ranked-choice general election. Peltola became the first Democrat since 1972 to win Alaska’s statewide House seat in 2022, but subsequently lost reelection in a narrow contest in 2024.

Trump has long attacked Murkowski after the Alaska Republican voted to impeach him following the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. In 2022, Trump endorsed a GOP candidate to take down Murkoski, but she survived the challenge and is now only one of two GOP Senators left who defied him – the other is Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who is up for reelection this year.

While speaking at the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s 2026 Policy Conference at the Washington Hilton, Trump attacked Murkowski for not supporting his voter ID bill – the SAVE Act. “We have a few Republicans who are fighting it. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. You should call her and tell her to get on the ball. She’ll never win another election, I can tell you,” Trump fumed.

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