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News | Mail Online

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'Not again': Rare El Niño event to bring a hot, dry summe...
Matt Jones · 2026-04-22 · via News | Mail Online

Published: | Updated:

Millions of Aussies will sweat through an even hotter, drier summer than usual this year thanks to a rare 'super' El Niño event.

The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed the 2025-26 La Niña has ended but, in the same breath, warned the opposite climate event would soon come into effect.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, influencing global weather every three to seven years.

The recent La Niña period featured cooler Pacific waters and stronger trade winds, causing above-average rain in Australia.

El Niño consists of warmer Pacific waters and weaker trade winds, leading to drier conditions in Australia. 

Forecasters say a super El Niño climate pattern is currently brewing in the Pacific as warmer-than-average water builds up in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

Experts say it could be the most powerful El Niño event in a century. 

It means hotter temperatures and heatwaves are likely to hit the east coast in the second half of 2026 and bring with them a heightened risk of drought and bushfires.

Aussies in Sydney will flock to the beaches this summer as a predicted El Niño event brings hotter than usual temperatures

The chance of exceeding median rainfall for May to July, 2026

The 2018-19 El Niño event played a major role in the Black Summer summer bushfires which resulted in countless damaged properties and dozens of deaths. 

'Bureau and other models forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming in the coming months to reach levels consistent with El Niño,' a BoM spokesperson said.

The Bureau's long-range forecast for May to July shows rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of eastern and south-west Australia.

Above-average rainfall is expected across western and central parts of Western Australia, as well as parts of the east coast of Queensland's Cape York Peninsula.

The super El Niño will develop in late winter or early spring, and its impact will be felt across the country well into 2027.

There should be a major reduction in rainfall across eastern and northern Australia, which could lead to a shorter snow season for NSW's ski resorts.

Sydneysiders can expect more 40C+ days during the upcoming summer while in the tropics, the monsoon season may be delayed which means less tropical cyclones.

Aussies expressed frustration at the news. 

The El Niño event will heighten the risk of drought in the eastern states

Bondi Beach will be a popular spot for Sydneysiders looking to escape extreme heat

'Gosh, I hope we don't have drought,' one person said.

'Not again,' another wrote.  

But some Australians were sceptical about the forecast.

'They can't even predict the weather for 24 hours,' another person wrote. 

'I bet it'll be cool and wet, then two weeks of unbearable heat, and that's about it, you watch,' another said. 

El Niño generally lasts nine to twelve months unlike La Niña, which can linger for up to three years. 

UK-based website Carbon Brief predicts that 2026 will be the second-warmest year on record.

'The year is virtually certain to be one of the four warmest on record and, currently, has a 19 per cent chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record,' it said.

Australia will be under an increased bushfire threat later in the year due to the El Niño event

Join the discussion

How should Australia prepare for hotter summers and rising power bills caused by extreme El Niño events?

What's your view?

The Niño 3.4 index is the metric used to define El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Since 1950, there have been three years where the index surpassed +2C for at least three months.

The first instance was in 1982, a year marked by one of the driest winters on record.

The 1982/83 summer was the hottest on record at the time, with 75 people in Victoria and South Australia losing their lives in the Ash Wednesday bushfires. 

Super El Niño's also hit in 1997, which produced the hottest summer on record at the time, and in 2015 when the hottest October to December period was recorded. 

Australians will need their air conditioners more than ever from November this year, bringing yet more stress to stretched households. 

Power bills are rising significantly in 2026, with forecasts indicating a potential 24 per cent increase for many households, adding roughly $500 a year to costs.