Andy Burnham’s record and character will not withstand the national scrutiny that will come with a bid to become Prime Minister, says Alys Denby

Once, when asked which was his favourite biscuit, Andy Burnham replied “beer and chips and gravy”. If the Mayor of Manchester wins the Makerfield by-election today and graduates from local celebrity to national politician, he will crumble like a wet custard cream.

He may have made a success of his self-banishment from Westminster, but it should not be forgotten that he slunk off to Manchester following a leadership campaign so bad he lost to Jeremy Corbyn. His laddish Northern schtick carries only regional appeal and is, in any case, a wafer-thin veneer masking a Cambridge-educated former special adviser. Far from a political outsider, he has a long and mostly abject record as a New Labour minister. As health secretary he was nicknamed “bodybags Burnham” for his involvement in the Mid Staffs hospital scandal where hundreds of NHS patients died from neglect. 

Weak and desperate to be liked

He is so weak and desperate to be liked that he has U-turned three times before even winning his seat. Each of these is telling in its own way. Changing his mind on single-sex spaces shows he is a sock in the wind of prevailing cultural trends. Ruling out paying compensation to the Waspi women having said he would “stand by them” proves he will tell whatever noisy ladies of a certain age want to hear, however absurd and entitled their demands. And saying we shouldn’t be “in hock” to the bond markets reveals he is economically illiterate. He even admits this himself. In a recent interview with the BBC he refused to do “an exam on the fiscal rules”.

Should he win in Makerfield today and challenge Starmer for the leadership, he will promise to take Labour back to its comfort zone: higher public spending, renationalisation and rejoining the EU. This pleases his members but it’s a dire prospectus for a country desperately in need of growth. 

Indeed this entire by-election circus is an exercise in putting party before country. Labour won an overwhelming majority by pledging stability and an end to Tory in-fighting. Keir Starmer’s approval may have plummeted since, but nobody voted for a revolving door on 10 Downing Street. And the last thing British businesses and investors – desperate for a predictable environment in which to take long-term decisions – need is another protracted leadership campaign and a paralysed government. 

As they go to the polls today, the people of Makerfield aren’t just choosing a local MP, but a potential next Prime Minister. They should bear in mind the Peter Principle: people rise to their level of respective incompetence. Burnham has been a good Mayor of Manchester, but that is the highest office to which he should aspire. In the unlikely event that voters reject him today, he gets to keep that job. A win for Manchester and a win for Britain.

Alys Denby is opinion and features editor at City AM