RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA - JUNE 02: Pavel Dorofeyev #16 of the Vegas Golden Knights celebrates a goal by teammate Ivan Barbashev past Frederik Andersen #31 of the Carolina Hurricanes during the second period in Game One of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final at Lenovo Center on June 02, 2026 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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Momentum changes, blown leads, record-breaking plays, through four games the Stanley Cup Finals between the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights have delivered all that and more, without anyone setting fire to opposing fans outside the stadium (at least I hope) or Presidents in the house.
It’s now a best-of-three series and shifts back to Raleigh for Game 5 on Thursday night. Carolina scored a 5-3 win in Game 4 in Vegas Tuesday, blowing a two-goal lead (my favorite stat on this series is that in every game a team has blown a multi-goal lead) and 37-year-old Jordan Staal scoring a goal while flying through the air. I’ve seen it called “Air Jordan” but I think I like ‘Staal’s Fall’ better.
The odds on this series have changed dramatically since it started. Conn Smythe? It is still anyone’s guess.
Here’s a rundown of the latest odds from Fanatics Sportsbook as we catch our breath on a Stanley Cup Finals travel day.
All four games in this series have hit the over, and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change any time soon. Carolina -1.5 is a scary bet because of just how close this series has turned out to be. Carolina did win 5-3 Tuesday, but that was because of an empty net goal.
Also the biggest storyline (among many) is what’s happening in net for Carolina. The Hurricanes sat Frederik Andersen early in Game 3 (Vegas led 4-0, but that didn’t hold up) and Carolina went to Brandon Bussi to make his first career playoff start.
Bussi, 27, only went 31-6 in the regular season, so why did Carolina go away from him to begin with? But Andersen was so hot in net, the Hurricanes just stayed with him (no sport has superstitions like hockey superstitions) Bussi hadn’t played in almost two months before Game 3. And honestly, he was good…not great Tuesday. He was big in the third period though.
I’m inclined to take any goals the sportsbooks want to give me in a series this wild and the over.
What a change in these odds since before the Stanley Cup Finals started. Marner has been Vegas’ best two-way player so far with three goals and five assists, but is he Smythe worthy, especially if his team loses? I don’t think so.
Hall has just one goal and one assist in the series, so far. I know the Smythe is for the playoffs in total, but does anyone remember now what happened in the early rounds since this started? Colorado who? Montreal who?
Staal is a great bet right now. He’s got five goals and one assist. What happens if Andersen comes back and wins Game 5 and Game 6 in net for Carolina? Doesn’t he become a real candidate again?
On the Vegas side, Brett Howden has given Carolina fits and has four goals and two assists. He’s made a huge difference in this series.
I’m not sure the winner of the Conn Smythe is one of the three current favorites.
As far as sportsbooks go, this is about as even as you can get. I think a lot of people (me included) saw Carolina as the slight favorite coming in, but Vegas has matched them defensively and executed so well when they’ve had chances (Howden has been the man).
We all thought the Knicks would have such a homecourt advantage in Game 3 up 2-0 on the Spurs and look what happened. San Antonio basically said, we’ll play you physical (and maybe dirty) to win. Just because Carolina gets two of the next three games potentially at home doesn’t mean a thing.
I can’t believe that this series can maintain this kind of pace. There feel likes there are momentum changes with every shift. But a series that has been bonkers since literally the first goal was scored 25 seconds in Game 1, deserves a crazy finish, I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams win on the road, only for Game 7 to be a classic.
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