ORLANDO, FL - APRIL 25: Jalen Duren #0 of the Detroit Pistons drives to the basket while being defended by Wendell Carter Jr. #34 of the Orlando Magic during the first half of game three of the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs at the Kia Center on April 25, 2026 in Orlando, Florida. The Magic defeated the Pistons 113 to 105. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
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A month ago, it seemed as though Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren might backdoor his way into a max contract starting at 30% percent of the salary cap in the 2026-27.
A lot can change in a week.
Duren is averaging less than 10 points per game in the Pistons’ first-round playoff series against the Orlando Magic. To put that in perspective, he averaged nearly 20 points per game during the regular season en route to his first All-Star nod.
At this rate, he might be lucky if gets a 25% max this offseason.
Those regular-season numbers were a career-high for Duren, who paired his scoring with 10.5 rebounds and 0.8 blocks in 28.2 minutes per game while shooting 65.0% from the field.
Forbes8 Early Observations From The NBA Playoffs
The Magic have made that version of Duren disappear in the playoffs.
Duren has scored no more than 12 points in any of the first four games against Orlando. After racking up 41 double-doubles in his 70 regular-season appearances, he hasn't topped nine rebounds in any of the first four games of this series, either. Duren did have five blocks in Game 3, but it wasn't enough to spare the Pistons from falling into a 2-1 series hole.
On Monday, the Pistons had a chance to wrest home-court advantage back from the Magic. Orlando shot a ghastly 30-of-92 from the field and 9-of-35 from three-point range. Jalen Suggs was the primary culprit, going 1-of-13 overall and 1-of-11 from deep.
Detroit still lost, 94-88. The Pistons got outscored by 11 in Duren’s 31 minutes.
The playoffs are a unique crucible in that regard. Certain players and schemes that have success during the regular season fall apart under the spotlight of the postseason.
Duren might not be a textbook 82-game player, but this series is raising major red flags for the Pistons ahead of a crucial negotiation period.
Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green popularized the demarcation between "82-game players" and "16-game players" years ago. Earlier this month, he expounded upon the difference.
"I think early in my career, you start playing playoff basketball, and initially you realize the difference,” Green told reporters. "You realize the difference in intensity. You realize the difference in the amount of focus it requires. You realize how much more you have to raise your level than the regular season.
"And so, I think initially it's going through that and being like, 'Man.' And then, you see it, and you start to see people fold. Guys who you've watched all regular season, and then, they get in the playoffs, and you're like, 'Whoa, who is that?' And to have the level of success that we’ve had, you quickly realize, 'Ahh.'"
Green said there were two main differences between the regular season and the postseason: focus and physicality. Players who can't lock in on a game plan and pay attention to details tend to struggle during the playoffs, as do players who shy away from contact.
Magic forward Jamal Cain tested Duren in the latter regard in Game 4. Duren ended up on the wrong end of an all-time poster dunk.
The bigger issue from a playoff perspective might be Duren's limitations on offense.
Although he averaged nearly 20 points per game and shot 65.0% from the field this season, more than half of his shot attempts came within three feet of the basket. Nearly 95% of his total shot attempts during the regular season were within 10 feet.
Through four NBA seasons, Duren has still yet to hit a single three-pointer. He's attempted only six in total, none of which came in the past two seasons. He also shot 4-of-25 from between 10-16 feet this year and 9-of-16 from 16 feet to the three-point line.
Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert is similarly limited on offense and has also struggled during the playoffs at times. However, the four-time Defensive Player of the Year can make up for his offensive limitations with his uniquely dominant defense, as he's currently proving against three-time MVP Nikola Jokić in the Timberwolves' first-round series against the Denver Nuggets.
Duren is a plus defender, but he's not an elite shot-blocker or rim protector. He's a volume rebounder who typically uses his 6'10", 250-pound frame to overpower smaller bigs, but Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. (6'10", 270 pounds) has held his own against Duren thus far in the playoffs.
Carter is currently finishing up a four-year, $50 million contract. The Magic signed him to a three-year, $58.7 million extension in 2024 that begins next season.
Duren's breakout regular season came at a perfect time. He's set to become a restricted free agent this offseason, and he's one of the best players who'll be available on the open market.
If he receives an All-NBA nod this year, he'll be eligible to sign a five-year max contract with the Pistons beginning at 30% of the salary cap. Based on the current projection of $165 million for the 2026-27 cap, his max deal could start as high as $49.5 million and be worth $287.1 million in total.
If Duren doesn't make an All-NBA team, he'll be limited to a max deal starting at 25% of the cap. His starting salary could be as high as $41.25 million, and the contract could be worth as much as $239.25 million in total. Other teams can offer him no more than a four-year deal worth $177,375,000.
Only six centers are set to earn at least $40 million in 2026-27: Jokić, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, Bam Adebayo and Chet Holmgren. Gobert and Alperen Şengün are the only other two poised to make between $30-40 million.
Şengün might be an interesting case study for Duren's upcoming negotiations with the Pistons. He wound up signing a five-year, $185 million extension with the Houston Rockets in October 2024 that was nearly $40 million less than the maximum amount he could have received.
At the time, Şengün was fresh off a season in which he averaged 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game, although he hadn't made an All-Star Game yet. (He's since received All-Star nods in each of the past two seasons.) But like Duren, there may be similar concerns about Şengün's viability as a 16-game player due to his mediocre defense.
If the Pistons believe Duren will continue to develop his offensive skill set and expand his shooting range in the years to come, perhaps they won't bat an eye at offering him a full max contract this offseason. They also might not have a choice. If they don't do it, the Lakers might be ready to pony up to make Duren their big free-agent splash.
Even if the Pistons go on to lose this series, Duren's place in their long-term future likely remains safe. He's firmly on an upward trajectory, and his chemistry with All-NBA point guard Cade Cunningham in the pick-and-roll took years to refine.
But with each underwhelming game in the playoffs, the Pistons have that many more reasons to question whether to hand Duren a blank check this offseason.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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