Tariff conversations return with experts estimating a hike of 15 per cent by December 2026 as market shares of individual telecom companies plateau.

Market shares of the three major telcos remain stagnant for the second quarter in a row. While market share of Vodafone Idea (Vi) remains on the lower end, the moderating pace of its peers’ gains could drive focus back on tariff hikes, as per a Jefferies report.

It estimated a 15 per cent tariff hike in December 2026 owing to the slow gains and Vi’s potentially stronger market share defence, resulting in sector revenue growth at a 13 per cent CAGR to $41 billion, driven by a 10 per cent ARPU CAGR over FY26-28.

Airtel’s gains are moderate

Bharti Airtel’s market share gains were broad-based, with gains in 19 of 22 markets. Notably, 70 per cent of gains came from four markets. In three of these markets, Airtel consolidated its leadership position, said Jefferies.

However, on both an annual and quarterly basis, the rate of gains for the telco has slowed. Similarly, Reliance Jio’s on-year market share change has remained stagnant at 0.5 per cent.

Vodafone India’s gains remain low

Vi on the other hand continued to lost market share in 21 of 22 markets, with Karnataka the only exception. However, its revenues grew 5 per cent YoY in FY26, driven by 12 per cent annual ARPU growth and partly impacted by a 7 per cent decline in average active subscribers.

On a yearly basis, Vi lost 75 basis points (bps) in revenue market share in FY26. Even so, the telco’s market loss pace has moderated with the report estimating the telco to maintain its current market share until FY28.

During FY26, net mobile revenue growth moderated to 10 per cent on an annual basis, an all-time high of $32 billion, led by an 8 per cent YoY rise in ARPU, owing to subscriber premiumisation.

Published on June 17, 2026