HYDERABAD, TELANGANA, 04/08/2025: With the onset of monsoons a farmer gets busy tilling his paddy farm using a tractor at a village on the outskirts of Warangal on Monday, August 04, 2025. Photo: NAGARA GOPAL / The Hindu | Photo Credit: NAGARA GOPAL

After achieving a record foodgrain production of 376.56 million tonnes (mt) in 2025-26, India has set a target of 373.93 mt for 2026-27 crop year (July-June). This includes 151 mt of rice, 121.5 mt of wheat, 28.42 mt of pulses, 18.08 of nutri-cereals and 52.50 mt of maize. The lower target fixed for rice and maize from the actual production is seen as a realistic move amid threat of EL Nino over monsoon after India Meteorological Department predicted ‘below normal’ rainfall.

However, a senior official, while ruling out disclosing the separate crop-wise target only for the kharif season, said that the target has no link with El Nino prediction and said it is almost at same level with the previous year’s target.

“Due to the current geopolitical tensions, th,e prediction of 90 per cent of normal rainfall is definitely a concern. Though in some of the food items like rice and wheat India is comfortable due to previous year’s surplus, several item,s including fruits and vegetables may be affected if the rainfall drops below 90 per cent as spatial distribution is also predicted to be disrupted this year,” said a trade policy expert adding a cautious and calibrated export policy may help tide over the impending crisis.

240 vulnerable districts

Sources said that about 240 vulnerable rainfed districts have been identified which could be majorly impacted if IMD’s forecast proves correct. Out of which as many as 157 districts have reportedly received at least 19 per cent deficient rainfall in El Nino years. Besides, there are a total of 577 identified districts where the Centre would closely work with States to guide them for better management, the sources said.

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday reviewed the situation with his ministry officials about the current status of monsoon progress, possible El Nino effect on crops, water availability, seed arrangement, an official statement said.

In the meeting, Chouhan has directed that all the concerned departments of the Centre and the State governments should take plan in advance in full earnest so that in case of any adverse weather conditions, timely advice to the farmers, suitable seeds, alternative crop options, are informed and get implemented. He also stressed on moisture conservation and water management assistance to farmers.

Controlling impact

“We are preparing together and the goal is that the impact of weather challenges on the farm and the farmer should be minimal,” Chouhan said in a statement. He said that through advanced technology adoption, expansion of irrigation facilities and climate-resilient agricultural practices the impact can be controlled to a large extent.

He directed that since states and districts with less rainfall, longer dry spells are likely to have a greater impact, special monitoring be made. Stressing on regular review and prompt action, he said that contingency plans should be activated up to the district level.

He also emphasised that water should be provided to the last mile of the canal system and asked officials to keep track through review meeting with States whether water is reaching or not. He told the officials that if there is a gap of two, or three or four weeks in rainfall, district-specific advisories should reach farmers in a timely manner in such situation, whether they need re-sowing, life-saving irrigation, short-duration crops, alternative crops.

Published on June 2, 2026