Satellite pictures show a rather cloudless sky over mainland India on Tuesday, pointing to a weak monsoon circulation, though clouds massed over the Bay of Bengal ahead of the formation of a crucial circulation. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com

The monsoon is expected to regain momentum next week, reviving along the west coast while simultaneously gathering strength over the Bay of Bengal, where a key circulation or low-pressure area is likely to take shape.

IOD beckons? 

Progressing in fits and starts under the growing influence of a developing El Nino, the monsoon is increasingly looking to the Indian Ocean for support. Global climate models suggest a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could emerge later in the season, potentially offsetting some of the adverse effects of El Nino. 

Growing uncertainty

Uncertainty remains over whether the event will be strong enough to exert a meaningful influence on India’s rainfall. Offering a perspective, Swadhin Behera, Director of the Application Laboratory at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology and Visiting Professor at the University of Tokyo, told businessline: “Latest SINTEX-F predictions show a drier India during the July-September season.” 

Not very strong 

“The predicted IOD is not very strong, but it is expected to moderate the growing El Nino impact during the latter part of the monsoon,” Behera added. It is therefore safe to assume that while the Indian Ocean may provide some support as the season progresses, it may not be sufficient to fully counterbalance the suppressing influence of El Nino on monsoon rainfall.

Pivotal circulation

The expected circulation could play a pivotal role in establishing the seasonal monsoon trough across northern India. Forecasts place the circulation near the Odisha–West Bengal coast, an ideal position to anchor and channel moisture-laden south-easterly winds from the Bay deep into the core monsoon region of the country.

IMD guidance

Numerical guidance from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates the circulation may develop around June 25 and take the monsoon into additional parts of East, Central and North-West India. Current projections, however, do not suggest widespread heavy-to-very-heavy rainfall over these regions.

ECMWF outlook

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) says the system may evolve a few days later but points to a spell of very heavy rain along the Bihar–Nepal border. It will spread later, with reduced intensity to East Uttar Pradesh, the Bihar plains, Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh from June 28.

West Coast rains

Along the west coast, rain and thunderstorms are likely to revive from June 22, extending northwards to Mumbai and Surat in south Gujarat. Rainfall is expected to intensify and spread southward to Goa, while adjoining parts of interior Maharashtra and Telangana may also receive showers.

Activity may ease somewhat over Mumbai later while shifting towards Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Even so, the anticipated rainfall is unlikely to make a meaningful dent in the large monsoon deficits accumulated so far across major centres, where the season has been hampered by a delayed onset and sluggish advance. 

Published on June 16, 2026